Résumé
This publication brings together several recent empirical analyses of well-known databases in England and Wales in an attempt to throw more light on the question of what causes crime and offending. British jurisdictions have, by international standards, good databases through which trends in crime and offending can be tracked, but to date the focus has been on drawing conclusions for policy development. In contrast, these papers use models of crime and offending to answer the more fundamental question: what causes crime. By matching their model hypotheses against available data each is able to throw more light on what is actually happening and to suggest how different policy developments might influence crime and offending patterns. They also suggest whole new areas of research and data collection activity.
Contenu
Contents: Editorial / Chris Lewis – A. Survey of the research literature on the criminological and economic factors influencing crime trends: a summary / Robin Marris & Volterra Consulting – B. Non-linear modelling of burglary and violent crime in the UK / Paul Ormerod, Craig Mounfield & Laurence Smith – C. A theory and model of the conviction process / John MacLeod – D. Developments and applications of MacLeod’s hypothesis / Peter Grove – E. Modelling crime at police force area level / Kirstine Hansen & Stephen Machin – F. Forecasting trends in recorded crime / Derek Deadman.