Résumé
"Identification of potentially dangerous people can allow police forces to be aware
of, and if appropriate engage with these individuals to manage the risk to the
public. The ultimate purpose of identifying such a group would be to reduce
repeat offending and protect the public through preventing future potential
harm.
This paper presents findings of a rapid evidence assessment designed to explore
the evidence base on factors associated with, or predictive of, known serious or
persistent violent offending, excluding domestic and sexual violence, for which
there are already existing offender management processes. Predicting future
offending based on factors associated with known serious offending provides an
indication of relative risk, that is how much more likely offenders with certain
characteristics (such as previous convictions for violent offending) are to commit
a further offence compared with other offenders. However, an increased relative
risk does not mean that all offenders with that characteristic necessarily go on to
commit further offences." -- Page 5.