Backgrounder: What is the National Risk Profile?
The National Risk Profile (NRP) is Canada's first strategic, national-level disaster risk assessment. It provides a national picture of the disaster risks facing Canada, and the existing measures and resources in our emergency management systems to address them.
This knowledge can help identify strengths and weaknesses in the current systems for preventing and managing disaster risk to help reduce the impacts of disasters for everyone in Canada. It will also help promote emergency preparedness through increasing awareness and understanding of disaster risk in Canada.
This first public report is based on input from diverse stakeholders and experts across Canada, and examines disaster risk from three of the most concerning and costly hazards facing Canadians: earthquakes, wildland fires, and floods. Given how the COVID-19 pandemic continues to affect our lives, the report also includes a section on how pandemics can impact emergency response to these three hazards.
The National Risk Profile shows how climate change and other major factors, like population growth, affect how these disasters can impact different parts of the country. It underlines the need to be prepared, as the impacts and challenges of disasters are only increasing.
For policy makers and emergency management professionals across Canada, the National Risk Profile provides a picture of Canada's disaster risks now and into the future, and assesses our ability to lessen their impacts. The report highlights areas of the national emergency management system that can be strengthened to increase resilience to the impacts of climate change and extreme weather events.
For the general public, the National Risk Profile report is the first in the country to inform Canadians about these events – what they look like, their economic and social costs, and where we need to focus to ensure our emergency management system is up to the challenge.
How does the National Risk Profile work?
The National Risk Profile takes a phased, all-hazards approach to disaster risk assessment. Instead of looking at hazards and managing them in isolation, it looks at what changes need to be made to our current emergency management system so that we can effectively respond to a range of hazards. This approach provides a more realistic picture for determining gaps and synergies across hazards so we can respond effectively to disasters, whether they are caused by natural hazards (such as earthquakes) or human-caused hazards (such as oil spills). This also prepares Canada to respond to multi-hazard scenarios, when more than one disaster occurs at once. In the long-term, this helps support effective emergency management to save lives and reduce the cost and impacts of disasters for all.
Given the breadth and complexity of the hazards the National Risk Profile will look at, this is a long-term process, and it will require a lot of research and evidence gathering. In order to build this foundational evidence base, research will be carried out in phases or rounds with a few hazards assessed at a time. This will allow for the methodology to grow and evolve, as well as ensure the ability to integrate lessons learned from previous rounds.
The first round of risk and capability assessment took place from spring to fall 2021, and focused on risks from earthquakes, wildland fires, and floods. Research for the next round has already begun, and focuses on heat events, hurricanes, and space weather events. Future rounds of the NRP, subject to decision-making, will expand to consider a broader range of natural and human-induced hazards.
Why does Canada need a National Risk Profile?
Communities across Canada are experiencing more extreme weather events and natural disasters than ever before. Climate change is accelerating the frequency and severity of these events that disrupt lives, damage homes, businesses and critical infrastructure, and impact our supply chains. As recent events like the B.C. heat dome and Hurricane Fiona demonstrate, it is crucial to build national resilience to these events, which pose ever increasing challenges across the country.
Building national resilience also means equipping Canadians with the knowledge they need to prepare for, manage, and recover from emergencies. Being better informed will empower all Canadians to protect themselves and their communities before, during and after disasters. Planning ahead for emergencies can save households' health, time and money in the long run. We all play a role in managing disaster risk, and increasing risk awareness across society will ensure we make the right decisions in preparing for, and responding to disasters.
The National Risk Profile will also support a wide range of other initiatives and programs that keep Canadians safe in the event of a disaster. It is a key part of Canada's Emergency Management Strategy, which identifies federal, provincial and territorial priorities for strengthening Canada's emergency management capacity and reducing disaster risk, and Canada's National Adaptation Strategy, which sets targets for action on adapting to the impacts of climate change. Further, the evidence base developed for the National Risk Profile will be used in the development of a national flood insurance program and the modernization of the Disaster Financial Assistance Arrangements, the Government of Canada's post-disaster financial assistance program, announced in Budget 2023.
The National Risk Profile brings Canada in line with our international partners who already have comprehensive national disaster risk assessments in place, and helps us meet our international commitments under the Sendai Framework.
Having a National Risk Profile also brings Canada in line with other G7 countries including the United States, that have had national risk assessment processes in place for many years. The National Risk Profile uses a capability-based planning methodology, which is also used by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) in the United States. This method allows for setting targets to manage the most catastrophic threats and hazards, and informs an efficient and effective use of resources.
How was the National Risk Profile developed?
The National Risk Profile is based on the latest evidence, as well as on consultations with a wide range of emergency management experts and stakeholders from across the federal government, provincial territorial and municipal governments, Indigenous organizations and communities, the academic, private, volunteer, and non-governmental sectors. Insights from targeted engagement sessions with First Nations, Metis and Inuit organizations and representatives, carried out by an Indigenous consulting firm, were incorporated throughout the report.
This first report of the National Risk Profile is truly national in scope, and provides an evidence-based framework for analysis that will not change based on political priorities. For example, the reference point for assessing strengths and weaknesses in the national emergency management system is a list of 38 items that was agreed to by all provinces and territories (Canadian Core Capabilities List).
The National Risk Profile is a tool for all Canadians, and as the knowledge base continues to grow, it will reflect the realities and concerns of even more diverse groups of Canadians.
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